Iran Nuclear Analysis
Here is a link to an interview on NPR with a political science professor from MIT. Like him, I definitely do not advocate a "submission" to Iran on the nuclear issue. However, I do believe that we need to objectively assess the true impact of Iran joining the nuclear club, and just how bad that would be. Frankly, if we had this conversation about Iraq before we attacked, I might have been less concerned about the threat they posed.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5407533
posted by Carl Spackler @ 4:48 PM
1 Comments
1 Comments:
Good stuff, Carl. Thanks.
While I agree with Barry Posen that Iran itself is containable if they get the bomb, I disagree that this somehow mitigates the resulting adverse circumstances.
Iran is an antagonist to the United States and the West. Their acquisition of the technology to build and deliver the bomb enhances their leverage at our expense no matter how you slice it.
Beyond this there is the obvious concern that their acquisition of the bomb would only result in its further spread and eventual use, if not by Iran then by someone who was facilitated by Iran's having obtained the capability.
For example, some of the same economic and political factors that Posen mentions in his interview as deterrents in Iran's case were also used to downplay the Pakistani threat when that country was pursuing the bomb. Additionally, Pakistan is considered a 'friend' of the US, unlike Iran. And yet, even with many of the same imperatives and incentives to behave as Iran their lack of internal control allowed one Islamic ideologue, AQ Khan, to open up nuclear shop and sell the technology to Korea, Iran and anybody else with a few bucks to spare. It only takes one committed ideologue, and there is no dearth in the supply of Iranian idealogues.
We must not distract ourselves from the reality that allowing Iran to obtain nuclear weapons capability would create a geo-political threat of the very highest order. I for one have always felt that Iran and Korea presented much more present danger than Iraq ever did. Alas, an essential advantage has been squandered.
>>>You can read a short and interesting biography of Khan here:
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200511/aq-khan
-Ico
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