Ethanol...is our problem solved this easily?
Saw this report on Dateline and was amazed at how close we are to ending our energy dependence on the Middle East. Brazil is now independent of foreign oil....
Take a read, worth your time.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12676374/
posted by Nym Pseudo @ 8:41 PM
5 Comments
5 Comments:
Who knows? It may even be a good way to finally end agricultural subsidies that curtail production of certain commodities.
On the one hand, our cars and SUV's consume 20 million barrels of oil per day - or some 67 times Brazil's production of Ethanol. On the other, refineries could definitely move further from the coast and create significant new growth opportunities in the heartland.
The only thing that bothers me is that this is a renewable source of fuel that may reduce the threat of global warming. If it works, what will the envigorentalists use next in order to scare the population?
K,
Good post and I am enjoying your additions to our little blog. However, did you actually go and read or listen to the link I sent. Brazil in energy independent and the last I checked they had a fairly large population as it relates to the U.S. No, they don't have as many drivers, they don't live and drive as far but it is a country that is more than a Conference Room Pilot that can be looked at for results.
Furthermore, there is new technology for ethanol production on its way that will extract 3X more fuel from the same material. That drastically drives down the amount of COGS required. In fact, the gentleman leading this effort sees prices that would be around the 70 cent mark.
Also, for your education go ahead and do a search on ethanol stations across the U.S. You will find it very interesting that 90% of these are on government sites that have no public access. Here is a map....http://www.e85fuel.com/database/search.php
I find it interesting that the government and some of its agencies already have ethanol fueling stations. I have not done the research to see why this is the case but nonetheless i find it interesting.
Also, with the usage of ethanol as an alternative don't you see the price of gas dramatically falling as oil companies try to make this a non-alternative solution? Go take a look at the story. At the very least it provides a counterpoint (or maybe a point to your counterpoint) argument.
Nym, the resident democrat on this blog! ;-)
Maybe I'm missing something, but we do not have to replace ALL of the gasoline produced by oil with ethanol, correct? If we are able to significantly augment our current domestic supply of oil, then that would be a huge benefit to us.
I will say that in addition to this, I firmly believe that we should do more on the regulatory front to force manufacturers to raise fuel economy standards. The current proposal on the table from the administration is an absolute joke.
Interesting debate because this is one of those issues with huge financial, political and social implications. When so many stand to get rich and so many others stand to get their oxe gored it is worth remembering that everything we see and hear about the subject is going to be skewed.
Nasser says that we would need to use 51% of the US landmass for corn production to replace all of current petroleum. However, as Spackler notes, the U.S. does not need to completely displace petroleum usage immediately in order to consider implementing alternative solutions such as Ethanol. We still produce alot of our own oil. If we only replace 30% of our transportation petroleum usage (most certainly do-able with a combination of Ethanol and other emerging technologies) it would go a very long way towards limiting our dependance on foreign petroleum, and the long term economic and political benefits of this would far outweigh any short term impacts of the transition. And the benefits will only increase as the technology accelarates with mass usage. I also agree with Spackler that the administration's efforts on energy policy have thus far been laughable. Only recently, when it became a short term political imperative, did they begin to change their tune. With just a little vision at the federal level to guide a true national effort in research and implementation, Ethanol and other energy technologies could displace a sizable portion of our petroleum usage within a decade. We aren't getting that from our current leadership.
On the down side, and where I agree with Nasser, grain based ethanol (produced from corn, wheat, etc) is much less efficient than the sugar based ethanol Brazil is utilizing, so an apples to apples projection from Brazil's success to potential US results is impossible. Most of the scholarly research I've read indicates that grain based ethanol produced utilizing current processing technology has a net negative energy balance. I.E. more energy is consumed producing and processing the Ethanol than the final product yields. By this measure it cannot be classified as a renewable energy source. The numbers for switchgrass and wood pulp (paper mill example in Nym's article) look even worse. Technological advances may overcome this, but not right away, and sugar cane don't grow in Kansas. In the interim we may need to use more energy (petroleum, coal or natgas) to produce Ethanol than the Ethanol will provide. A true economic cost of 70 cents per gallon is overly optimistic (you also get less miles per gallon with Ethanol).
I personally think the answer lies somewher in the middle. The simple fact is that at the moment Ethanol, like other emerging energy technologies such as hydrogen, has a number of problems and disadvantages that prevent it from being a quick and easy replacement to petroleum. Let's not forget that we've had over a hundred years to perfect and make the acquisition, transfer and use of petroleum into a highly efficient enterprise. Another simple fact is that economic, political and environmental imperatives will force us down the road to viable alternatives. Ethanol will probably be one among an array of energy solutions that will drive our eventual transition away from petroleum based fuels. But the single solution to all our gasoline problems within five years, as the article states? Highly doubtful.
-Ico
Just so we something about the sources of ethanol as I think some here are confused (from wikipedia, yes I know it is wikipedia):
Three countries have developed significant bioethanol fuel programs: Brazil and Colombia (from sugarcane), and the United States (from maize). Ethanol can be produced from a variety of other crops, such as sugar beet, sorghum, switchgrass, barley, hemp, kenaf, potatoes, cassava and sunflower, as well as many types of cellulose waste. This large-scale production of agricultural alcohol for fuel requires substantial amounts of cultivable land with fertile soils and water. It is less attractive for densely occupied and industrialized regions like Western Europe, or for regions where desire for increased farmland puts pressure on important natural resources like rainforests. Smaller quantities of fuel alcohol can be made from the stalks, wastes, clippings, straw, corn cobs, and other farm waste now used for fertilizer, animal feed, or electric power plant fuels. In fact, using a mix of, say, corn and corn plant stalks/waste would mean that industrialised countries like the US could get all the ethanol they need without cultivating any more farmland specifically for ethanol feedstock(however more land would still be needed to replace the lost plant wastes, used by many farmers as a cheap and clean source of fertiliser and animal feed.)
Also:
The term "E85" is used for a mixture of 15% (by volume) gasoline and 85% ethanol. This mixture has an octane rating of about 105. This is down significantly from pure ethanol but still much higher than normal gasoline. The addition of a small amount of gasoline helps a conventional engine start when using this fuel under cold conditions. E85 does not always contain exactly 85% ethanol. In winter, especially in colder climates, additional gasoline is added (to facilitate cold start). E85 has traditionally been similar in cost to gasoline, but with the large oil price rises of 2005 it has become common to see E85 sold for as much as $0.70 less per gallon than gasoline, making it highly attractive to the small but growing number of motorists with cars capable of burning it.
I do love that people grabbed onto the headline and it sparked some debate. I will note that in the future and ensure to make blanket statements to see where people stand. However, I do believe that a interim solution that helps us remove some dependence on foreign oil is a good thing. It's not the be all end all but it's also simplistic to just say ethanol is not feasible either. Ethanol production technology is improving and in fact I have seen studies that say that from the same material 3x the ethanol will be produced in then next few years. this turns the energy equation into a positive one.
Hey, I just got an idea! We could use this as a reason to attack Castro, take down communism, spread democracy, and establish a huge sugar cane crop!
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