It's that time of the year again....
It is that time of the year again where we reflect on the previous year and look forward to the next. Nym loves predictions so I am interested to see if anyone is willing to put some out there. These can be serious or Jeanne Dixon style....
Here are mine:
1) A tactical nuke or dirty bomb goes off somewhere in the world. I'm not sure the time is ripe for this but I made the predicition 5 years ago that we would see it in 5 years and 2006 is my last year.
2) The housing market does not bust and although will not see the same record heights it will not see the stock market type crash some people envision.
3) The Democrats do not take the 5 seats needed to win back the Senate. I'll say a net two or maybe three for them.
4) Rocky VI sucks.....
posted by Nym Pseudo @ 9:05 AM
2 Comments
2 Comments:
I am only taking you up on the Senate prediction, and here's how I see it.
I think the GOP has vulnerability as follows:
Chafee in RI. If this state was any more left-leaning it'd start moving West. Which, of course, says a lot for Chafee, who is arguably to the left of some Democrats.
DeWine in OH. OH is a toss-up state, and the state GOP is the messiest in the country. Dewine hasn't been doing much to secure his future either, voting Democrat in search of Spackler's vote (Spackler and I are 2 of 4 centrist voters left in the country). But I thought he didn't live in OH.
Sanctorum in PA. I think this is a net pick-up for my party (the Dean-Moore-Crats).
Burns in MT. This state is, to some extent, an expansion of the left coast. If it wasn't for Idaho's panhandle, some of the people would have already called for a merger with OR. So, it is, unbelievably for a non-coastal Western state, a toss-up. Burns has his work cut-out for him - especially after looking to Abramoff for help.
I also think that the DNC has some vulnerabilities as follows:
Nelson in FL. In this most toss-up of all toss-up states, he is the only Democrat in statewide office. So, I think everything is riding in the unknowns (more on this).
Open seat in MD (retiring Dem). Yes, MD. LT. Governor Steele may actually pull it off for the GOP.
Open seat in MN (retiring Dem). MN is one of those weird states where voters actually look at what the candidate says and does, rather than just his/her party. Let's hope this weird trend doesn't spread. Meanwhile, anything could happen.
So, I generally agree with you, except for the imponderables. And these are, in my view:
Iraq. In spite of the fact that I agree with Senator Reid and Howard Dean that my party should continue to call for the immediate, unconditional surrender and withdrawal of U.S. troops, I think Iraq will continue to improve - and our presence will be smaller before election time. It is unfortunate, but what is good for America is not good for my party.
The economy. In spite of the tax cuts, which we all know weighted heavily on the economy, the outsourcing of a large majority of U.S. jobs and Big Oil's obscene profits, the U.S. economy continues to grow at a pace closer to that of developing countries than to that of a mature economy. Just think about it; if we had no tax cuts, we would have probably doubled growth to over 8%.
Another terrorist attack. This is actually the most probable, as my party is busy ensuring that Al-Qaeda's rights are respected. Please help me by signing the petition I have started at http://www.terroristshaverightstoo.com/
I surely do hope you are wrong about the dirty bomb, but I don't believe that protecting the rights of American citizens will add to the risk of this event.
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