It's your call on......Iran
I'm starting a new little predicition thread called, It's your call.
In these threads I want your opinion on what is going to happen in the near term (1-2 years) on a subject. These don't have to be well researched or have many footnotes and references to articles. I just want to know what your gut feel is on an issue is and why.
First issue Iran....
In 1-2 Years I see Nym sees in his crystal ball the following:
1) The mullahs gain further control as they step into Iraq and the vacuum.
2) The radical youth of Iran does not step up and force change through revolution.
3) War with the west.....possibly nuclear.
We all know I have a morbid fascination with nukes and I think we are closing in on the time of usage and here seems the place. The U.S. went from no nukes to nukes in 4 years and it had not been done before. The runway is short with Iran and when France starts beating the war drum then we all should worry. Lastly, I believe that any bomb the develop won't stay in the arsenal llong....it will land somewhere in Israel.
I think war with Iraq (no ground troops and no invasion) is becoming inevtiable. regardless of who wins next year.
Thoughts?
posted by Nym Pseudo @ 9:52 PM
9 Comments
9 Comments:
I certainly think that the administration wants to get into Iran as it would allow for our dominance in the region and allow us to be in command of the world's oil supply.
Predictions:
1) This administration comes up with a reason to attack Iran. Since CIA efforts (believed to currently be in wide ranging operations within Iran) may not be able to significantly destabalize the Mulah's rule, they may "turn up" something significant that will be used to convince the American people the ware with Iran is necessary....whether it be true or not.
2) U.S. citizens don't buy it and the congress attempt to block the administration from going to war with Iran.
3) International pressures U.S. to not get involved (think Russia).
4) We end up not striking Iran during this adminstration's rule if we had only left Iraq alone we could have delt with Iran's threat with some hope of actually preventing them from going nuclear. Now this is in doubt.
5) Isreal strikes Iran's nuclear sites early in the next president's administration. We move in to defend any retaliatory strikes.
I do agree that the military is hungry to use the nuclear option. And we do need a good reason to test our Reliable Replacement Warhead (RRW) program, so the nukes may come into play in order to defend Isreal. Maybe we just give them to Isreal for them to use.
I am somewhat less inclined to think of this in terms of conspiracies from the administration. My take:
(1) Syria & Iran (SyrIran) continue to forge closer ties, IN SPITE OF their religious differences (the enemy of my enemy is almost my friend, etc.)
(2) Hezbollah obtains WMD’s (N, B or C, maybe multiple) from either or both of these players
(3) Israel continues to bomb Hezbollah preventively in a futile attempt to delay the inevitable
(4) Hezbollah gets through and inflicts large number of casualties in Northern Israel. Political pressure in Israel mounts for a strike against SyrIran
(5) The U.N. condemns Israel’s aggressive posture as its members convene for multiple lunches and dinners along the swankiest restaurants on Fifth Avenue. A moment of silence is observed for the victims (on both sides) between the 3rd and 4th courses of every meal (monitored by the newly formed Office of the High Commissioner on Moments of Silence for the Victims of Zionist Aggression, a neutral observer of the 72nd Middle East Peace Process). France objects to the Moment of Silence resolution but, in light of its newfound common ground with the West, abstains.
(6) Israel bombs selected targets within SyrIran. The low level, undeclared war between SyrIran and the Zionist entity escalates.
(7) SyrIran deploys NBC weapons. Signature is traced back to North Korea and/or Pakistan.
(8) Musharraf is beheaded and radical fundamentalists take over in Pakistan. After numerous incidents along the Kashmir, the low level conflict between India and Pakistan escalates. The Islamic Republic of Pakistan nukes India, which retaliates barbarically against the peaceful Mullahs.
(9) The U.N. bans the sale of Slurpees and several other 7-Eleven staples, in what is considered its harshest posture to date, in retaliation for India’s action. China vetoes the ban. Russia abstains. France scoffs.
(10) CNN’s ratings go through the roof, as do Fox News. Up to five people are believed to actually watch MSNBC.
(11) President Clinton II (PCII) sends President Clinton I (PCI) as Special Envoy to the Middle East. PCI immediately states that he “feels the pain” of the people in the region and that “no option is off the table.” He offers Britney Spears the post of Ambassador to Israel if she agrees to gain some weight.
(12) Senator Reid states that the current problems were brought about by the Iraqui invasion and sends a high level congressional delegation headed by Senator John Kerry. Senator John Kerry (who, by the way, served in Vietnam) states that these are isolated incidents best dealt with by the FBI and ATF.
(13) PCII signs the new FISA law, wherein warrants must be signed by the Cap Gemini East BU expense reimbursement team before they are allowed to tap conference calls between Pakistan, Syria, Iran and North Korea. The ACLU quickly condemns the blatant infringement of our civil liberties.
(14) Al Gore laments the effect on global climate of multiple nuclear explosions in the Indian subcontinent and the Middle East. Michael Moore traces a seal found on one of the unexploded nuclear bombs to a Halliburton subsidiary.
(15) PCII’s new Ambassador to China, Mr. Hsu, requests and is granted a C5 Hercules transport plane, as the 747 he was formerly using is woefully inadequate for the size of his “diplomatic pouch.”
(16) The U.S. withdraws with honor from Iraq. Suddenly, SyrIran’s forces start singing Kumbaya and are quickly joined by Pakistan and North Korea. Britney Spears declares the Middle East conflict over and joins PCI for an after-action report in the Greek Island of Lesbos (a personal favorite of PCI).
always entertaining - thanks Centerline!
WP op-ed piece that a friend forwarded me:
The proverbial shit flying towards the proverbial fan:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/09/20/AR2007092001955.html?hpid=opinionsbox1
At the risk of sounding smug, I'd say we can check 1 - 6..... and possibly get ready for 7.
Ain't that a bitch....
Just when Kim was calming down.
Seems like even Russia and China thinks this is serious in their commentary today.
Scary times are afoot.
Good grief... I cannot believe how little faith that most of you have in the world's abilities to work things out.
The one thing that most of your predictions fail to take into consideration is the MOTIVATION for the actions of the sovereign nations that are involved. It's one thing for Al Quaeda to behave irrationally. They live in caves, and they are looking forward experiencing 40 virgins.
However, the leaders of Iran and Syria, regardless of how bellicose they may be, do not live in caves. They have bank accounts, cars, wives, children, and mistresses. They do not want to screw these things up. Hezbollah is a wild card, but they also have an agenda.
What is the motivation for Iran to nuke Israel? Religious fervor? B.S. Ever since Israel started kicking butt and taking names in '47, the entire middle east COULD have engaged in all out war more than the couple of times that they did. However, they knew that this would cause THEM pain in addition to Israel. Nothing will immediately change about that if Iran gets a few nuclear weapons. It may eventually embolden the Muslim countries to conventionally attack Israel, but I doubt it. We will be back to a mutually assured destruction situation.
The MAIN reason we do not want Iran to get nuclear weapons is that we are afraid the technology will be stolen/given away, and then used by the people in caves against Israel or the U.S. This is the major problem, but I do not see this as a reality in the next couple of years.
As a sidebar, I do not see the U.S. EVER using nuclear weapons again. We don't need to. With or without nukes, we could take out the military capability of any middle eastern country in a week.
Nice, Carl. You're banking on the rational and logical thinking of Bashar-al-Asad and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. While I concur that Bashar has more of a Western education and would probably not go beyond pushing his proxies in Lebanon, I am not at all convinced of the rationality of Mr. Ahmadinejad. I think he'd push the button.
speaking of rationality.....here is something I can honestly not understand. Calling for the death of an old lady who is in your country teaching children for charity? - b/c a teddy bear was allowed to be named (named by tht estudents mind you) Mohammed?!?
My expectation/hope for a peaceful co-existence with Islam is very low....
"Students waved flags and beat drums in protest outside the British embassy in Khartoum, following demonstrations on Friday when sword-waving Islamists called for the teacher's death."
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071203/ts_nm/sudan_prophet_dc_43;_ylt=As.fEcdeDHmsk513xVzXlMUE1vAI
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